In modern politics, campaigning never really stops. The 2012 election year offers a change to refine predictive models and generate election forecasts. There are benefits to ignoring the day-to-day political news cycle and instead focusing on factors that have more predictive power.
Here are some markets and forecasters that track political events and predictions:
Markets:
Betfair Politics Zone: a betting exchange based around UK and USA politics
Intrade Prediction Market: a prediction market that covers a variety of events, including political nominations and election wins
Iowa Electronic Markets: a futures market based on real-world events, including politics
Paddy Power Politics: betting market for politics
Polls and Predictions:
Bread and Peace Model: election predictions based on income growth and war
Cook Political Report: analysis of state elections
Democracy Corps: conducts polling on the electorate
Election Projection: predicts results of upcoming elections
Electionate: analyzes polling data
ElectoralVote: aggregates electoral vote projections
FiveThirtyEight: makes election forecasts based on statistical models
Gallup: political opinion polling provider
Google Consumer Surveys Election Center: provides insights on election issues
Huffington Post Election Dashboard: aggregates election information
Huffington Post Pollster: aggregates polling data
IBOPE Zogby: conducts political opinion polls
JZ Analytics: analyzes election polling data
Marist Poll: tracks public opinion
Politico Polls: tracks recent polls
PollingReport: tracks trends in public opinion
PollyVote: election forecasting by averaging forecasts
Predicting Presidential Elections: election predictions based on economic factors
PredictWise: makes election predictions
Princeton Election Consortium: analyzes national election forecasts
RealClearPolitics Electoral Map: tracks electoral vote projections
RealClearPolitics Latest Polls: updated polling information
Recorded Future Election: election projections based on online activity
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: analyzes and forecasts elections
Talking Points Memo PollTracker: frequent reporting on polls
The Monkey Cage: applies political science research to election topics
Twitter Political Index: tracks interests in candidates on a social network
VOTAMATIC: presidential election polling and forecasts
Washington Post Election Predictor: a basic model for predicting the election
YouGov: tracks polling information
Updated 10/21/2012
